The Amorphous threat – 3 Warfares
Many in the World War II generation recall the shock of Pearl Harbor. It is known many were surprised by the audacity of the attack, but not that it was coming. As a matter of fact, many intelligent and forward-thinking people knew it was coming. By December of 1941 there was over 2 years of fighting in Europe. The Spanish Civil War was a clear prelude to the European Theater. The Japanese had expanded into Korea, China, and Manchuria. The pattern of attack had already been demonstrated by the Royal Navy against the Italian fleet at Taranto over a year earlier.
The Japanese Peral Harbor Attack Commander, Fuchida, had studied the Taranto attack. The Japanese were developing the means to make this type of attack. Senior U.S. Political and Military leaders were told that war with Japan was inevitable. The U.S. Defense industry was already developing the weapons such as Essex class aircraft carriers, B-29 bombers, and advanced fighter planes to fight this war. Most of the U.S political class and population was asleep to the growing threats. Then as now, a segment of the military and the defense industry knew war was coming.
But what if the Japanese mistake was ultimately to awaken the United States to the actual threat.
What if there was a far more sophisticated enemy wise enough to not wake the United States to the direct military threat. What if this adversary is capable of non-military power to achieve military goals.
What if the adversary could directly or indirectly leverage:
-An American Political Party, or the political system to do its bidding.
-The United States economic system to pursue reckless policy.
-The Department of State controls over military technology it coveted.
-State and local governments to enforce or ignore laws.
-Election systems, methods, controls, and therefore outcomes.
-The United States Justice system to persecute persons it saw as a threat to its strategic goals.
What if I told you, what you already suspect, that the Chinese Communist Party has been executing these efforts for over 2 decades. In fact, the CCP is in the strategic offensive of these efforts. The “fundamental transformation” of America that Barack Obama promised just before his election is now most likely one more election away.
The Chinese Communist Party has developed a doctrine called the Three Warfares. This is the coordinated use of Psychological and Information Operations, Political and Public Opinion shaping, and Legal Warfare. These efforts are design as a method to isolate and neutralize critics of the Chinese Communist Party. Influencing foreign governments in way that shape them to desires of China are specifically called for.
The Three Warfares are battlespace shaping operations. They create favorable operational environments, to “assure success prior to open hostilities”. The legal warfare provides the legitimacy for launching an attack while constricting an adversary’s response. Political and Public Opinion shaping is designed to aid the CCP and its supporters and proxies in the target nation while simultaneously delegitimizing adversaries. The information and psychological warfare are meant to demoralize, confuse, and paralyze the target nation.
We must acknowledge the full scope of the conflict between the United States and China. We must better prepare for and prevent the modern irregular warfare concepts that Chinese forces have already begun employing in great power competition. These efforts are centered on the Political, Economic, and Military power projection of the United States. The efforts are primarily focused inside the United States.
As this document is open source, the discussion will be focused on political and economic arenas. Only where those efforts adversely affect DoD, will it be discussed.
Political efforts in this type of warfare are in two lines of effort; social and political party manipulation.
3 Warfares Social Efforts
In many ways the United States still embodies the zenith of the Western Tradition. Self-reliant, self-determining, individuals on lifelong journeys of self-improvement. Where a free and fair environment allows for the best concepts to rise on their merits. Where no one specific mindset can gain dogmatic control of the masses for long. Where a “Social Frank-Starling” effect can take place, where the society is stretched to far one direction, it can snap back to more neutral setting. Where less effective and sustainable polices are naturally discarded. Where excellence rises and mediocrity falls.
This self-reliant meritocracy is a key feature in American power. That is why it must be destroyed first before the US military can be defeated.
Under 3 Warfares doctrine, narrative development of social movements undermining principals of self-reliance and meritocracy is the key to all other efforts. It is key to prioritize ideas and concepts that undermine a warrior ethos, political unity, and economic power. 3 Warfares Social Efforts offer reasons for resisting and undermining the attributes of a healthy republic.
It starts with the education system, well known for its tolerance for Anti-American Marxists. The usurpation of the American education system is well known and a subject that can not be done justice in the scope of this document. But a clear example of its effects can be shown in a recent study.
A survey asked 3,000 kids in the US, UK, and China what they wanted to be when they grew up, presenting them with five options: vlogger/YouTuber, teacher, professional athlete, musician, and astronaut.
In both the US and UK, vlogger/Youtuber was the most popular choice (29% and 30% respectively); astronaut, meanwhile, was the least popular (11%). In China, the trend was reversed, with more than half of respondents selecting astronaut (56%).
This is also reflected in issues with DoD recruiting. The Army needed 60,000 new recruits in 2022 but enlisted only 45,000. DoD’s pool of potential recruits is dwindling. Fewer than 25% of all young Americans between the ages of 17 and 24 qualify academically and physically to serve in the military.
The effects of undermining the necessary social characteristics to fight in combat are widespread. The feminization and emotion-based ethics being pushed on American males is one example. While every qualified individual who wants to serve should be safe to do so. Sexual orientation should never be the focus of the military. This also coincides with a dilution of religious faith in DoD. The belief in something greater than oneself is a key characteristic to fight effectively in war.
This is being further complicated by the left leaning politicization and “woke” ideology being installed in DoD. This is already known to drive retention lower, especially among the combat experienced troops.
Over the last few decades within DoD specifically there has been increasing focus on process over results. Coupled with decision making creeping higher, this erodes initiative, another characteristic important in warfare.
But the social erosion is not limited to DoD. That once you being to dramatically alter the social dynamics of the population, the military will eventually follow suit. One effort is to replace racial equality through merit that was typified in Dr. Martin Luther King’s “…a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character." Those who have served in Infantry, Airborne, or SOF units have long thrown off the mindset of racism. We only care about how you do your job. Race is irrelevant.
This mindset will be destroyed by Social Justice. Where racial segments are taught, they are victims or oppressors. This causes fragmentation of any team dynamic and is becoming standing policy in many school districts. The destruction of gender roles and strong families furthers fragmentation and dissolves unity.
With unmitigated migration, there is a further erosion of common bonds so important to the defense of a nation. Those with no understanding, or roots in an American Constitutional Republic will have no ability grasp why it is worth defending. If the treasonous concept of allowing non-citizens the ability to vote becomes policy, this will accelerate the dilution of commonality.
The erosion of merit, cohesion, and self-reliance are well under way in the west. The social fabric of the United States is deteriorating. The 3 warfares doctrinal efforts is to accelerate it.
3 Warfares Political Party Manipulation
To assist in the installation of leveraged CCP sycophants is a key objective of 3 Warfares Political Party Manipulation. This allows CCP objectives and policy concepts to be installed indirectly, allowing for denial of undue influence.
A critical flaw in the US political system is the ability for entities to influence elected decision makers with financial donations or incentives. There are laws which are supposed to prevent this. But as the Biden Family and Clinton Global Initiatives show, they are easily circumvented or just not investigated. Barack Obama’s net worth prior to election was about $1.3 million, now up to $70 million as of 2022. Nancy Pelosi is worth $171 Million. Senator Mark Warner (D) of Virginia is worth $250 million. In 2016, the average Senator is worth about $12 million and the average Representative about $7 million.
I have spoken at length on Senator Diane Feinstein’s family wealth that comes from exposure to Chinese entities. Wealth that comes from Chinese business entities does not come on merit or for free. It comes with extensive lists of conditions. Look at the numerous retractions by the NBA and other athletes who have run afoul of CCP policy. Access to the Chinese market requires advocacy for CCP polices.
The CCP seeks to disarm the American population. Born from revolution itself, the CCP knows the power of an armed populace. From state sponsored news outlets in China to U.S. based news outlets that are co-aligned, the message is the same, remove the right of self-protection.
This would give Big Government authoritarians in the US Government, what they have longed for, a monopoly on physical power. American disarmament is also a key CCP goal. Who has been the biggest champion of the removal of the right of self-protection in the U.S. Senate? Diane Feinstein.
Her family wealth derived from Chinese entity exposure and support for the CCP’s U.S. Domestic policy goals is probably not a coincidence.
While the Democratic Party with its penchant for Marxism, is a fertile ground for CCP influence. There are numerous examples of CCP intelligence efforts exploiting Democratic elected officials. One example is the Biden Administration cancelling the DOJ China Initiative that focused on CCP espionage efforts. Representative Eric Swalwell who was on the House Intelligence committee sharing secrets with Christine Fang. Christine Fang, who escaped capture was tasked with developing intimate relationships with U.S. politicians to gain proximity to political power.
But its not just about gaining access to technology and secrets. The CCP’s Political Party Manipulation efforts also are meant to prevent damage to the international image of China. Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher stated he is concerned Chinese influence within the Democratic Party could prevent a genuine investigation into the origins of COVID 19.
There are operations designed to influence response to the CCP’s efforts as well. The CCP’s Political Party Manipulation efforts also target resistance efforts and their leaders. The 2020 election is a case study in next generation warfare. On its surface, it appears the Wuhan lab leak was purposeful. That Nancy Pelosi made every effort to keep travel open as long as possible to China, knowing COVID 19 was rampant. This was done in order to use a biological agent, to fundamentally alter the economic and political advantages away from President Trump. The mail in voting schemes and other irregularities were added insurance to remove President Trump from office.
The narrative that President Trump is Hitler is a common psychological warfare technique. It offers Rasion- D’etre for the unhinged violence and vitriol the left has for conservatives. If Trump is Hitler, so therefore his followers are Nazis and are worthy of the same fate. This opens the door for detaining conservative protesters without charges. Or even more nefarious, interfere with elections with baseless accusations.
The Manhattan DA’s efforts of fabrication are just another example of this type of activity. It will not result in real charges. It will provide narrative control, similar to the entirety of the Trump Presidency. This type of activity is to provide talking points and narrative development to attempt to skew political opnions.
The 3 Warfares policy also enables sycophants installed in leftist areas drive destructive social, security, and economic policy. Any policy you might have recently noticed from your state house or city hall that restricts the freedom of Americans, or puts the American citizenry last, originated from someone influenced by or aligned with the CCP.
Erosion of the US economic power is the key objective of all CCP shaping operations. The global lesson from World War II is that an unchecked US economy has the ability alter the dynamics of any conflict. The Cold War was won with economic power. That free Democratic Republics which were supported by the US created a global explosion in standards of living. The global economic structure sustained by the United States created something socialists and communists can never provide, a hope for a better life.
This free global structure allowed for historic out spending of the communists, which caused them to over leverage and over extend their economies. This economic instability was the key factor in the collapse of the Soviet system. A lesson the CCP knows well and one they seek to avoid.
The rampant spending of the U.S. Government has radically expanded over the last 30 years. President Obama’s Quantitate Easing programs set the United States on a course to hyperinflation. While Trump era policies were mostly a reprieve, the Biden Administration has us back on the hyperinflation path.
The CCP’s policies of undermining the US World Reserve Currency status is gasoline on that fire. With Saudi Arabia trading oil in Yuan at the time of this article, it is a matter of time until the implications are felt. Under Obama and now Biden, the United States abused the world reserve currency. When we printed off billions into circulation, we exported inflation to the world. The world is paying us back. The Saudis are not only trading in Yuan, but OPEC is cutting oil production across the board. This is a direct response to the Biden Administrations treatment.
It is well known payments by CCP state sponsored entities were provided to President Biden’s family. The Obama’s, Pelosi’s, Feinstein’s and other high-ranking democrats are also deeply financially entangled with CCP sponsored entities. This not only leverages these politicians but ties their personal success to the financial success of the Chinese Communist Party. With a contracting energy supply, mostly diverted to China, this leverage increases.
The coming economic pain for the United States is part of the 3 Warfares methodology. The economic isolation and undermining of the United States are having effects on our international alliances. Their ties to the United States and its self-sabotaging economic policy brings increasing risk. Not only are large American banks failing and energy production is down. There are widespread supply chain disruptions and Biden Administration environmental policy is impacting grain production. To make the situation worse the coming large-scale inflation is going to create a radical increase in the cost of everything.
The decoupling from the US Dollar for international trade is going to be a disaster. The middle class in the UK was devastated by their loss of global reserve currency status. The middle class in the United States will face a similar fate.
In the face of this, the American contraction on the global stage is being filled by the CCP. The fumbled withdrawal from Afghanistan, the political insolence in the Ukraine, the driving of Russia into the waiting arms of China, the abandonment of the horn of Africa, the implosion of the European energy markets, all of this is according to plan, China’s.
If China plans to be the center of gravity of the global economic, political, and military power, it must breech the American Fortress.
I consider the American Fortress a defensive arrangement that are various structures in depth. Starting with the U.S. Air Force and its ability to project force globally withing hours. Then the U.S. Navy, which effectively secures the world’s oceans for global trade, also has global force projection. These two elements of combat power would restrict any type of direct action that the CCP may attempt in overt hostilities. That is a loosing bet no matter how it is evaluated.
But if you could plunge the United States into disarray, open military hostilities may not be necessary. This is the desired effect of the CCP’s 3 Warfares doctrine. To plunge the United States into full scale political, military, and economic disarray opens the door for Chinese regional military goals. Not only is Taiwan in the crosshairs, but the Alaskan Oil Fields, the US West Coast, Australia, and most of the Pacific Rim are as well. The global presence of the U.S. military would massively retract if there was a civil war.
All it takes to is collapse the U.S. Economy, the U.S. Currency, then instigate civil war within the United States. The political volatility shown by leftist radicals since 2016 has created an ever-growing divide politically within the United States. In west coast states in particular, legislative punishment is being doled out on those who “vote wrong”.
Left wing physical violence shown against Trump voters in 2016 and 2020 could easily go kinetic. There would be a response from the right. The February 2014 type violence in the Ukraine in one or two American cities is all it would take. Already the last several school/mass shooters have been leftists, who have targeted conservatives. Leftist politicians have purposely exacerbated the issue by using those attacks to attack the right of self-defense. It is as if the American left is trying to instigate a response for the right.
The political volatility could accelerate out of control when the effects of the U.S currency being dropped globally for trade. The world is paying back the Biden Administration for its weaponization of the US Dollar’s reserve currency status. The side effect of the dumping of the US Dollar will be an explosion in interest rates. Some speculation is if just 50% of international holdings are liquidated back into the circulating supply of money (M2 funds) this will be about 6-7 Trillion extra dollars. This would end up being an extra 25-30% of money supply. The duration of that liquidation effort, if short (less than 180 days) would be absolutely catastrophic. The is non an economic Pearl Harbor, it is an economic Hiroshima.
As the Biden Administration’s incompetence has increasing negative effects, evidence surrounding 2020 election regularities will gain further traction. There is ample evidence that has never seen a court room that would cast even more serious doubt on the Biden Administration’s legitimacy. As economic pain increases the desire to remove President Biden accelerates. These sentiments in certain parts of the nation may boil over in the face of the 2020 election irregularities. The more than two dozen states who signed on as parties in support of Texas vs. Pennsylvania, which the US Supreme Court never evaluated, show where the dividing line is. This is an exploitable fracture line of any Unconventional Warfare effort.
The open southern border allows any Unconventional Warfare forces to stage men and equipment with impunity. Some suggest Chinese SOF elements are ill-suited to provide support to insurgencies or to organize indigenous resistance groups. The conventional perspective is that Chinese SOF will mostly likely be employed in more standard direct, 75th Ranger Regiment style missions. This is dangerously misguided. There is evidence the Iranian Qods forces (the spontaneous responders to a video of Benghazi fame) are actively working with Chinese SOF. This is alarming. Almost as alarming as the 700% increase in Chinese Nationals being detained at the border. Which still not as alarming as them often being released.
Border policy raises some very uncomfortable questions. Who sets border policy? Who is responsible for implementing it? Who benefits from these polices? Who exactly are we letting in? Why are they here?
Train derailments across the nation emulate confidence target attacks of the SFQC. Then add power station attacks in North Carolina, there is a very real possibility these are probing attacks of an Unconventional Warfare element. These are logical actions
for an element intent on disrupting supply and power grids. This could be practicing for the wide area disruption attack I’ve described in earlier blog posts.
All of this is happening when the Department of Defense is exporting unit level technology as fast as it can be produced to the Ukraine. The depletion of man portable missile systems and other squad level technology creates a specific defensive gap. For example, we have exported most of our stockpiles of Javelin missiles. These would be a critical asset in repelling a combined Russian/Chinese force crossing the Bering Sea to seize Alaskan oil fields.
If the United States is fighting itself, there is no way we could stop China from taking Taiwan. If the United States is fighting itself, the CCP would become actively involved, on the side of those they have helped install. If the United States is fighting itself, it will plunge the world into chaos, and China’s waiting totalitarian hands.
This is the ultimate purpose of China’s 3 Warfares policy. To leverage economic relationships, erode economic power, ingrain destructive social policy, use installed judicial assets to weaponize and subvert the law, dilute the warrior ethos, skew elections to favorable candidates, implement CCP policy through political assets, and exploit political fractures to a point where another civil war is probable.
The Chinese have been very successful.