In previous articles I have discussed at length a new generation of warfare. A method of warfare where all aspects of a nations power are brought to bear against its enemies. Methods where conventional warfare units are most often the very last to be engaged. A style of warfare where media, information, intelligence, asymmetric, electronic, and covert operations destabilize a nations enemy long before the first shots are fired. First displayed in the Ukraine in 2014, the Russians have shown they have mastered this new type of warfare.

More importantly Russia has been conducting continuous offensive operations of this type since 2014. They are ready for this new type of warfare, we on the other hand are not. We could very well be on the receiving end of a Gulf War level of change in military tactics.

This comment might seem outlandish. I hope for our sake it is. But let me delve deeper into why I think it is not.

This battleground is hotly contested. Ukrainians and Russians have been dying for years over this area. Both the Ukrainian and Russian troops have shown they are courageous and relentless. This is a blood feud with a pre- Stalin era history. There have been attempts at cease fires in this dispute, unfortunately they have done nothing to resolve the violence. For some in the Ukraine, they still remember events like the Communist forced mass starvation during the Holodomor.  The Holodomor carries the same cultural significance as the holocaust for Jews.  While for the Russians, and the ethnic Russians of the Donbass, this is about what they see as sovereign Russian territory. While many in the west scoff at this as propaganda, what we think is irrelevant. The ethnic Russians and their supporters believe it.

In light of that, the United States has no clear strategic objective. The only connection we seem to have to the Ukraine is the loose NATO/EU affiliation. There are the reports about prosecution interference by then VP Joe Biden and Burisma Holdings payments to the Presidents family. Prima Facie these seem to be the usual pay to play situations that frequently play out in the former Communist Bloc. We should not accept nepotism as the guiding force in our foreign Policy. In particular, when the Ukrainians expect us to recompense by fighting with the only country that could launch a full nuclear exchange.

Something else we must understand, Syria has been a fact-finding mission for the Russians. I discussed my reservations over Syria with former Secretary of Defense James Mattis. This was encapsulated in article that ran on Funker 530 around the same time. www.plumbprecision.com/2016/06/01/the-spanish-civil-war-as-a-historical-precedent-for-syria/ . I was very clear that we are following a clear historical precedent in Syria. A precedent that mismanagement in Syria, or an extension of the conflict into other areas, leads to global war. While the former Secretary of Defense acknowledged these points, I wonder how many other senior leaders do. Every time a mission is conducted, every aircraft over flight, every bullet or missile fired, leaves a pattern of activity that leaves physical and electronic signs. Every B-2, F-22, or F-35 sortie provides the Russians valuable information on our front-line weapon systems. More importantly our massive electronic signatures are being displayed. 6 years in, the Russians know how we fight with our best, but we have not seen their best systems in action.

Many within the community know that under the Trump Administration the Army Tier 1 element engaged and devastated Russian Wagner Private Military Contractors. So devasting in fact, a friend in a foreign military described the engagement as “bit more than personal”.  Many of those Wagner PMC’s are connected to current Spetznaz Alpha elements, which in turn are closely tied with Russian national leadership. Make no mistake Putin and his inner circle know what happened. The Russians have learned to fear our Special Operations Forces and the air power that enables them. If we force the Russians to engage us in the Eastern Ukraine, they will have no illusions. The Russians will have no choice but to give it their all.

Facing them will not necessarily be USSOCOM and its battle-hardened leadership. It will be “Woke” Army leadership with little to no combined arms experiences. Our edge in combined arms has slowly degraded since the Gulf War 30 years ago. In addition, the critical vulnerabilities exposed during operations in Syria might be vulnerable to modern Russian electronic warfare systems. There is a good chance Russian Electronic and Cyber Warfare will grind the US forces to an absolute halt. The Russians have prepared a style of warfare that is not fully understood, much less taught in JRTC or NTC.

We are not ready for when an entire brigade of US troops is wiped from the face of the earth with a BM-30 SMERCH rocket battery. We are not ready for when new S-500 SAM systems start locking, tracking, and interdicting B-2’s and F-35’s. We are not ready for when the laser range finder emissions from your sniper rifle result in mortar counter battery fire in minutes. We are not ready to function in a high threat EW environment, where your commander’s hacked Blue Force Tracker is the terminal guidance for a Kaliber Cruise missile.

The Non-combat focus of our armed forces was identified in the Trump Administration as a key vulnerability. With Biden Administration it seems political correctness over combat power is back on the menu. The ability to think on the fly and out of the box is not a cherished attribute in the Army Personnel Management System. How many Brigade Commanders have actually been overwhelmed in combat operations over the last 20 years?

To be blunt conventional unit operations in our GWOT is not a peer-to-peer fight. Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban do not have artillery, air forces, or electronic warfare capabilities. Whereas the Russians have been fighting the very determined and creative Ukrainian forces from a much more peer-to-peer position. They know the lay of the land, they know the smell of the mud.

The United States military has socially ingrained electronic dependency in a way that is alarming. Imagine removing uniformity from a Sergeant Major to enforce discipline, except for SOF, a near impossible task. Similarly, the US military cannot function effectively in a restricted or compromised electronic environment. Since the 1990's  we have continuously removed decision making processes from junior leaders and consolidated them in higher echelons. The culture of this decision centralization has been specifically enabled by our military electronic infrastructure. This results in US forces even more susceptible to EW threats. The ability to spoof, track, and manipulate US military electronic infrastructure would be a key Russian objective. An objective they are already well-versed in.

By direct contrast the Russians have been decentralizing their decision-making processes. The Russians understand that key leadership elements will be destroyed in any battle. They understand the effects of US combat power. They are preparing for fighting with minimal to no communications or electronic support above unit level. We should be doing the same.

The United States is very air asset dependent. We still do not understand the full capabilities of the most modern Russian area denial systems. It is speculated with some degree of certainty that Russian S-500 systems are fully capable of engaging even the most modern US stealth aircraft. To what effect is unknown, but our continued operations in close proximity to Russian forces in Syria give them ample opportunities to learn.

Additionally, we would be facing 1^st tier Russian aviation assets working from bases in their home territory. SU-57 and SU-33 fighters are very good and represent a threat the United States Air Force has not seen before. Knowing under a Biden Administration, US forces would be working with restrictive rules of engagement. We would be playing on their field, on their terms. The possibility US forces would be working without air superiority is high. We are not prepared for the level of costs in casualties and treasure that will bring. GWOT has conditioned US forces to low casualty rates. Then the Russians also possess deep strike conventional weapons. The 3M-14T Kaliber cruise missile has a range of up to 2500 km. This puts effectively all US airbases in Europe in range.

We are not properly structured to fight in a war that rapidly transitions from non-lethal electronic means, to covert operations, to conventional strikes, and back again. While much of how I suggest we conduct those operations is discussed here www.plumbprecision.com/2021/04/06next-generation-sf-oda-with-cema-capabiltes/  (Due to the concepts nature, only the executive summary will be public).

A key threat capability are reconnaissance elements that use precision marksmanship, electronic warfare, and the ability to coordinate fires. These elements operate within a broad spectrum of conventional, asymmetric, and clandestine manners. We need to match and exceed threat capabilities in this arena. Currently we lack certain capabilities, formations, and authorities to fully counter emerging and established asymmetric threats.

The Political division inside the United States will also be exploited. While the corporate media apparatus ignores and downplays the most suspect election in our history, Russia will play the election fraud card.

While there is a conspiratorial aspect of 2020 election fraud. I will discuss what can be shown with a high level of probability. Results for voter turnout and voter preference are far outside mathematic and historical probabilities. Results show Biden radically outperformed Obama and Clinton in capital cites of swing states with Democrat Governors. Alarm bells are already ringing on the left as recount results in Arizona look to further undermine the legitimacy of the Biden administration.

Counties (in some cases) with double registered voter turnout, dead voters, ballot tampering, ballot creating, and double voting are all verified. There were vote dumps (100% for Biden) in excess of 100,000 votes in the middle of the night. States and Courts were blocking legal verification and monitoring actions. Voting machines have been found with software algorithms that change or fractionalize votes.

Counting, stopping, vote dumps, and then more counting over several days in critical swing states with Democrat Governors was n full display. Meanwhile, other states with similar populations were finished by midnight on election day. There are 75 million people who think the election was either fraudulent or at a minimum highly suspect. Several state legislatures ae now conducting investigations that are proving this to be more than speculation.

To think Putin would not use this to his advantage is foolish. If it is real or not, it would have the same effect. The modern American Corporate Media establishment has long shown itself to be extremely untrustworthy. Untrustworthy to a point that foreign influences could manipulate that collective distrust.

There is no better way to prevent US involvement in the Ukraine than foster the already simmering dissent in the United States. The possibility of Civil War in the United states is no longer a discussion held in the dark corners of the internet. Court packing, big media suppression, federal voting guidelines, and unconstitutional gun laws all exacerbate an already volatile situation. One that foreign powers could and would easily inflame.

While the Biden Administrations and Senior Democrat ties to China blind us to their activities, we must not ignore how  China would exploit a US-Russian conflict. China has by far the most to gain from the United States and Russian engaging in any type of conflict. The Russians would not be an easy fight. The cost in men and material would further weaken our ability to respond in Asia. Not only would China emulate successful Russian a strategies, we would be far weaker to stop them. They appear to be poised to exploit a Biden blunder into the Ukraine.

For these reasons and so many more, a fight with Russia is not the one we want.